Saturday, June 16, 2012

Predictably unpredictable

The life story of Paul the Octopus is now the subject of a film. Apparently the question of whether he was a genuine oracle or a tentacled sham is still hotly debated.

Well, I suppose the idea that an octopus might know better than expert human so-called forecasters who, despite their mastery of mathematics, cannot tell us what is going to happen next in the worlds of banking, economy & politics, may actually be of some comfort in a world turned so frighteningly uncertain.

New contenders - including at least one llama - have been put forward for the vacant title of football seer now that Paul is no longer available, but as far as I know none has succeeded in taking over his crown, having failed even to forecast correctly the rseults in the European Cup so far; perhaps that is why England (whisper it) are creeping up unnoticed & unheralded.

One well known climate change expert came out at The Times Cheltenham Science Festival this week to warn that the more 'we' know about climate change the more uncetain the models become, & that the biggest uncertainty is what we ourselves will do.

Pesky thing, humans, refusing to behave in nice predictable ways.

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