Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Rear view mirror

Lotto sales falling, said the headline

The story beneath did not support this assertion. Yes, sales fell by more than £100 million in 2007-08, but that does not mean they are still falling – the Olympic successes prompted lots of ‘The lottery is worthwhile’ kind of comments

This of course is always the problem with statistics. Using them to predict the future is, as someone once said, like trying to drive using only the rear view mirror – be it the future financial markets, population, climate change, whatever, we are trying to foresee

But it is all we can do for now

Until the day when all you can see in the mirror is a great big scary monster

Then we are into the realm of metaphysics – in a dark room (to mix the metaphor), blindfolded, looking for a black cat

Which may, or may not, be there

Related post: Is North up or down?