Monday, March 10, 2008

Baby boom & bust

The term Baby Boom originally applied very specifically to the peak in the birth rate in 1946-48 just after the end of WWII. Schools (and the new NHS) scrambled to cope

This group has been of policy interest again recently as they reach 60 & so qualify for pensions, bus passes & other concessions

In the years since, the term Baby Boomer has often been stretched, sometimes to include even those born in the 1960s – many of them the children of the original boomers

Out of curiosity I looked at just how unusual was the number of births in that 3-year post-war period compared with following decades


Births in England & Wales (millions)

1936-38(est) 1.9
1946-48........ 2.5
1956-58........ 2.2
1966-68........ 2.5
1976-78........ 1.7
1986-88....... 2.0
1996-98....... 1.9

In terms of numbers alone, one can see why the mid-60s are like the mid-40s

But the most interesting figure is the very low one for the mid-70s

Which, other things being equal, means an unprecedented drop in the number of late 20-somethings in England & Wales in recent years

Which puts Polish Plumbers in a whole new light – there really was a gap in the market on the supply side